Thursday, March 26, 2009

Going Down

The recession is hitting every part of the world, every industry. But I hear that the public service industry is the least affected. Good times for them! 

One major industry is lying wounded is Aviation. The projected loss for aviation was x billion for this year. But yesterday the projection touched 2x billion for 2009. I've been closely watching the numbers rise and fall. Never seen them go so low. 

After 9/11, the aviation industry got divided into three groups financially. Today's economy is the ultimate test for them.

Firstly, the companies that suffered a minor loss after 9/11, they are still managing to survive today's abyss. They have found a way around the dollars and are waiting for the high tide to wash their tears away.

The second group got hit bad after 9/11. These companies have started panicking today. They are laying off employees, deferring aircraft orders and reducing capacity. They have made tough decisions and found a way to cling on. 

The third group faced a crisis the moment those planes crashed into the world trade center and it's sad to say that they were in crisis up until a few months ago. It just never stopped. Most of these companies have gone bankrupt, Eclipse aviation is the best example, and the rest are heading towards bankruptsy as the months go by. 

Overall, the North American market is better placed if compared to the European market. This is solely due to the stability of the oil prices in USA. 

The way I see it, either the recession will end first or the oil prices will erupt due to volatility. Either way there will be a huge shift in numbers from east to west. How this affects and bothers me is as follows. Three months ago I set out to collect as much data as possible. I read articles, papers, airport data, predictions, projections etc. I had my facts right and numbers circled. But the timing of the recession and my thesis are a work of Murphy. These numbers and projections can be thrown out the window now. There will be new shit everyday and that could potentially harm my research. Approximately 367 papers have been written on the increase in air traffic over the next 15 years. Suddenly, they don't make sense. What happens this year will define the next 15 years of air travel. 

Friday, March 6, 2009

The founding of the Unofficial

March 5th 1803.

Niclas: I just got a call from him. We need to pay up by next month, or else we are all dead. 

Patrick: How the hell are we going to come up with so much money in so little time?

Romney: We shouldn't have borrowed the money in the first place, that too from such a dangerous man.

Patrick: Oh, quit whinning!

Romney: Shut up!

Niclas: How much money do each of you have?

Romney: 35 grand.

Patrick: 20 grand.

Niclas: And I have 30 grand. That means we are still 105 grand short.

Patrick: Why don't we sell our houses or businesses?

Romney: Are you crazy? We won't make that much anyway and we will become complete beggars.

Niclas: He's right, Pat.

Patrick: Well, I have an idea. But it's crazy.

Niclas: Anything will do in such a situation.

Patrick: Well, what if we come up with a strategy which will enable us to earn a lot of money in a single day.

Romney: If you're talking about something illigal, then I must remind you that we are wanted for a lot of crimes in a lot of countries.

Patrick: No, no. Nothing illegal. 

Niclas: What do you mean? Elaborate.

Patrick: If we tell the people that tomorrow they must use products made by us, we can earn a fortune.

Niclas: Who the hell would want to buy so many t-shirts from me? And how the hell will you two make money out of your businesses?

Romney: I don't even want to live in Windsor anymore.

Patrick: We can tell them that tomorrow is a national holiday. They will believe us. They need to buy a lot of liquor and t-shirts. We can have a particular brand of t-shirts made just for this day. We can have this event in different countries on different days.

Niclas: That doesn't sound half bad.

Patrick: Since you don't want to live in Windsor anymore, Rom, you could go to USA and sell the products.

Romney: I'm not sure about this.

Patrick: Trust me. I will supply you with the liquor and alcohol. Niclas will supply the t-shirts. We can target USA and UK.

Romney: Hmm.

Niclas: What would the holiday be called?

Patrick: Well, since I came up with this, I'll call it St.Patrick's Day. Rom can choose whatever name he wants in the USA. But I doubt whether a St.Romney's Day would be appealing enough.

Romney: The USA won't allow such an official holiday. I'll call it the unofficial.

Niclas: Sounds like a good plan to get people to wear the same t-shirts we sell, and drunk for no goddamn reason. This will be our cash-camel.