Going Down

The recession is hitting every part of the world, every industry. But I hear that the public service industry is the least affected. Good times for them! 

One major industry is lying wounded is Aviation. The projected loss for aviation was x billion for this year. But yesterday the projection touched 2x billion for 2009. I've been closely watching the numbers rise and fall. Never seen them go so low. 

After 9/11, the aviation industry got divided into three groups financially. Today's economy is the ultimate test for them.

Firstly, the companies that suffered a minor loss after 9/11, they are still managing to survive today's abyss. They have found a way around the dollars and are waiting for the high tide to wash their tears away.

The second group got hit bad after 9/11. These companies have started panicking today. They are laying off employees, deferring aircraft orders and reducing capacity. They have made tough decisions and found a way to cling on. 

The third group faced a crisis the moment those planes crashed into the world trade center and it's sad to say that they were in crisis up until a few months ago. It just never stopped. Most of these companies have gone bankrupt, Eclipse aviation is the best example, and the rest are heading towards bankruptsy as the months go by. 

Overall, the North American market is better placed if compared to the European market. This is solely due to the stability of the oil prices in USA. 

The way I see it, either the recession will end first or the oil prices will erupt due to volatility. Either way there will be a huge shift in numbers from east to west. How this affects and bothers me is as follows. Three months ago I set out to collect as much data as possible. I read articles, papers, airport data, predictions, projections etc. I had my facts right and numbers circled. But the timing of the recession and my thesis are a work of Murphy. These numbers and projections can be thrown out the window now. There will be new shit everyday and that could potentially harm my research. Approximately 367 papers have been written on the increase in air traffic over the next 15 years. Suddenly, they don't make sense. What happens this year will define the next 15 years of air travel.